Outlook · 2024-12-15
Tampa Q4 at $116/lt sets up the 2025 rally
Fourth-quarter 2024 Tampa molten at $116/lt (USGS MCS 2025) marked a clear lift from the $69/lt start of year without returning to 2022 spike territory. Vancouver finished 2024 at 3.3 Mt sulphur (+8%), extending the multi-year volume climb from 2.29 Mt in 2021. The combination of firmer contracts and growing Pacific throughput set conditions for inventory economics to flip toward remelt in 2025 if FOB stayed elevated. China’s import dependence and Middle East share of seaborne trade remained the structural risk factors that would dominate 2026 headlines. UNCERTAIN: Alberta end-2024 stock path between the derived ~12 Mt mid-year level and the July 2025 11.66 Mt print. Fourth-quarter 2024’s Tampa settlement at $116/lt completed a year that began at $69/lt without revisiting 2022 spike territory. Vancouver’s 3.3 Mt sulphur close extended the 2021-24 ladder and set the stage for 2025’s $238/t January-July FOB average. The combination of firmer contracts and growing Pacific throughput is what flips Alberta economics from pour toward remelt once FOB clears the export-chain hurdle often cited above $150/t. China’s import dependence and Middle East seaborne share remained the systemic vulnerability that 2026 would expose. UNCERTAIN inventory pathing between mid-2024’s derived ~12 Mt and July 2025’s 11.66 Mt should be resolved against AER tables, but directionally the market was pivoting from soft surplus psychology toward a tighter, remelt-friendly regime.
Key points
- USGS: Tampa Q4 2024 $116/lt vs $69/lt at start of 2024.
- Vancouver 2024 sulphur 3.3 Mt (+8% YoY).
- Five-year volume path 2021-24: 2.29 → 2.79 → ~3.10 → 3.3 Mt.
- Setup for 2025 remelt draws if FOB covers >$150/t export-chain costs.
- UNCERTAIN: winter 2024-25 Alberta pour vs remelt net balance.
Sources
Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.
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