Outlook · 2024-09-15
Soft balance into autumn 2024 before the next rally
Autumn 2024 still looked like a soft-to-moderate sulfur market relative to 2022 and 2025-26 extremes. USGS placed Tampa near $76/lt in early July with a later lift into Q4 at $116/lt, so H2 began the turn. Vancouver volume growth continued underneath the price quiet. Canadian exporters and forming operators were effectively building the logistics muscle that 2025-26 buyers would need when Middle East flows failed. World sulfur production in 2024 was estimated near 85 Mt by USGS, roughly flat with 2023. UNCERTAIN: timing of the first sustained Vancouver FOB up-move in late 2024 versus early 2025 in open non-licensed series. Autumn 2024 was the pause before the next firm phase. USGS’s early-July Tampa near $76/lt and later Q4 lift to $116/lt bracket the turn. World production near 85 Mt, roughly flat with 2023, offered no dramatic supply surprise. Vancouver volume growth continued underneath the price quiet, extending the multi-year ladder. Canadian exporters and forming operators were effectively rehearsing the logistics that 2025 remelt draws and 2026 alternative-origin bids would need. Middle East concentration of seaborne trade remained a background risk that open commentary treated as structural rather than acute. For Sulfur Wire’s five-year corpus, Q3 2024 is the last soft-balance chapter. Readers should not confuse moderate prices with idle Canadian capacity; the port statistics show the opposite.
Key points
- USGS: Tampa early July 2024 ~$76/lt; Q4 2024 later $116/lt.
- World production ~85 Mt in 2024e (USGS MCS 2025).
- Vancouver volume runway intact into year-end.
- Logistics capacity mattered more than price optics in Q3.
- UNCERTAIN: exact week when 2025 rally narrative began in spot FOB.
Sources
Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.
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