Moderate prices with continued Vancouver volume growth

Mid-2024 kept sulfur in a moderate price band by recent cycle standards while Canadian export logistics stayed busy. USGS path for Tampa showed early-July levels near $76/lt after the March $81/lt print. Vancouver’s path to 3.3 Mt for the year implied a sustained ~270 kt per month average if evenly distributed. Industry commentary continued to flag rising nickel HPAL and battery-chain sulfuric acid needs as a medium-term demand layer atop phosphate. Alberta inventories were still high enough that a later 2025 draw would be meaningful; derived mid-2024 stock near ~12.0 Mt follows from Argus’s July 2025 11.66 Mt print and 377 kt YoY draw. UNCERTAIN: exact July 2024 AER close; the 12.04 Mt figure is arithmetic from Argus YoY commentary. Mid-2024 kept absolute prices moderate while Canadian Pacific volumes stayed heavy. Tampa near $76/lt in early July, after $81/lt in March, was a mild retreat inside a still-soft band. Vancouver’s path to 3.3 Mt implied sustained monthly stems near the high-200 kt range if evenly spread. Industry outlooks increasingly layered HPAL nickel and battery-chain sulfuric acid demand onto the phosphate core, a structural demand note that would matter when 2026 prices tested affordability. Alberta inventories near a derived ~12 Mt mid-year still offered remelt optionality that 2025 would exercise. The second quarter’s public story is therefore continuity: moderate contracts, rising Vancouver tonnes, large provincial stocks. No Hormuz crisis yet, no record Tampa print yet. only the quiet accumulation of corridor capacity and customer habits that later stress would rely on.

Key points

• USGS: Tampa near $76/lt by early July 2024 after March $81/lt.
• Vancouver on track for 3.3 Mt full-year 2024 sulphur.
• Derived Alberta stock ~12.0 Mt mid-2024 from Argus Jul 2025 YoY math.
• HPAL / battery sulfur demand rising in industry outlooks.
• UNCERTAIN: mid-2024 destination mix Brazil/China/Indonesia shares.

Sources

• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 . Sulfur
• Alberta sulfur inventories fall as exports climb (Argus)

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.