Outlook · 2024-03-15
Tampa at $69/lt and quiet start to 2024
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 recorded Tampa contract sulfur beginning 2024 at $69 per long ton, rising to $81/lt in early March, then easing to $76/lt by early July, with Q4 2024 later at $116/lt. The early-year print matched the soft post-2022 regime. Port of Vancouver sulphur was heading toward another growth year: authority statistics later showed 3.3 Mt in 2024, up 8% from 2023. Quiet absolute prices coexisted with rising Canadian Pacific volumes, reinforcing that Canadian solid sulfur had become a baseline Asian supply source. US production and shipments in 2024 were each estimated 5% below 2023 in USGS MCS 2025. UNCERTAIN: whether early-2024 Vancouver FOB midpoints already discounted later H2 firmness. First-quarter 2024 reprised soft Tampa prints at $69/lt, matching early-2021 levels in USGS’s telling even though the global logistics map had changed. Vancouver was already running toward another growth year that would finish at 3.3 Mt (+8%). US production and shipments estimated 5% lower year on year in MCS 2025 implied a slightly tighter domestic US balance beneath the quiet contract, without restoring 2022 scarcity psychology. Canadian solid export growth during a soft price year again showed term offtake and logistics clearing power. Early March’s rise to $81/lt hinted that the floor was not permanent. Open researchers should treat Q1 2024 as the last unambiguously soft quarter before the H2 2024 firming to $116/lt and the much stronger 2025 Vancouver FOB averages. Basis between Tampa molten and Vancouver solid remained a freight-and-form problem rather than a single North American price.
Key points
- USGS MCS 2025: Tampa began 2024 at $69/lt; early March $81/lt.
- Vancouver 2024 sulphur later confirmed 3.3 Mt (+8% YoY).
- US 2024 production/shipments estimated −5% YoY (USGS).
- Volume growth with soft prices = logistics and term offtake still clearing.
- UNCERTAIN: Q1 2024 Vancouver spot vs Tampa molten basis in open sources.
Sources
Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.
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