Outlook · 2023-12-15
Soft Tampa year-close and Canadian export surplus
Year-end 2023 left sulfur prices subdued relative to 2022 extremes. Open market notes into early 2024 described US Gulf Q1 2024 liquid contracts settling down to $69/lt FOB Tampa from late-2023 levels. Vancouver’s ~3.1 Mt sulphur year confirmed structural volume growth even as prices stayed soft. Canadian surplus continued to clear through dual channels: molten rail to US consumers and solid Pacific export. Alberta inventories remained large enough that remelt stayed a price-contingent option rather than a continuous must-run. Battery-metal and HPAL sulfur demand was rising in industry outlooks but had not yet rewritten the fertilizer-led cycle. UNCERTAIN: end-2023 Alberta AER stock versus the ~12 Mt mid-2024 derived level later implied by Argus. Year-end 2023 left sulfur in a soft price regime that would persist into early 2024’s $69/lt Tampa settlement. Vancouver’s roughly 3.1 Mt sulphur year nonetheless closed as a volume success, proving the corridor’s commercial depth. Canadian surplus continued to clear through molten rail south and solid Pacific export, with Alberta inventories still large enough that remelt was discretionary. Battery-metal and HPAL sulfur demand featured more in forward commentary than in 2023 spot clearing, which remained fertilizer-led. For open-data trackers, the fourth quarter is when the 2021-23 Vancouver ladder (2.29 → 2.79 → ~3.10 Mt) became undeniable. Price quiet and volume growth together set a trap for anyone reading only FOB: logistics capacity was accumulating even as contracts looked dull. That capacity would be called in 2025-26.
Key points
- BC Insight early 2024: Tampa Q1 2024 settled at $69/lt after Q4 2023 soft path.
- Vancouver 2023 sulphur ~3.1 Mt cemented multi-year volume expansion.
- Canada remained a structural exporter of both molten and solid sulfur.
- Inventory draw still required supportive FOB above export-chain costs.
- UNCERTAIN: precise end-2023 Alberta inventory from AER public extracts.
Sources
Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.
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