Tampa settles near $90/lt as refinery surplus rebuilds

Fourth-quarter 2022 locked in the post-spike reset. USGS recorded Tampa molten at $90/lt for Q4 2022 after the April peak of $481/lt. BC Insight noted the Q4 Tampa drop of $262/lt to $90/lt as the lowest since Q4 2020, citing higher US production and weaker processed-phosphate demand. USGS January-August 2022 US production was reported higher year on year as fuel demand recovered. Vancouver nonetheless finished 2022 at 2.79 Mt sulphur, proving that volume can expand even as prices collapse if stems were already programmed. Soft FOB levels into year-end revived Alberta pour-to-block economics for tonnes that could not clear export netbacks. UNCERTAIN: Q4 2022 Alberta inventory build magnitude without a published AER close in open press. Fourth-quarter 2022 locked the reset. Tampa at $90/lt after $481/lt in April is a wider contract swing than most fertilizer raw materials see in a single year. BC Insight’s note that Q4 was the lowest since Q4 2020, alongside higher January-August US production, frames the Atlantic surplus story. Vancouver still finishing at 2.79 Mt sulphur shows annual volumes can disconnect from spot trauma when H1 stems dominate the calendar. Soft FOB into year-end revived Alberta inventory economics: remelt tickets pause when the export stack does not pay. Looking forward from December 2022, the market expected calmer 2023 volatility if North American output stayed healthy, a view Argus articulated in contemporary commentary. That calm arrived in prices more than in Canadian volumes, which kept climbing. The public lesson is to track USGS Tampa, port tonnes, and inventory switches as three separate series rather than one price chart.

Key points

• USGS: Tampa Q4 2022 at $90/lt after $481/lt April peak.
• BC Insight: Q4 Tampa down $262/lt; US Jan-Aug 2022 production +450 kt YoY context.
• Vancouver 2022 sulphur 2.79 Mt despite H2 price collapse.
• Soft export netbacks favor Alberta inventory build over remelt.
• UNCERTAIN: tonnes poured to Alberta block in H2 2022.

Sources

• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023 . Sulfur
• Price Trends (BC Insight / CRU, Nov 2022)
• Port of Vancouver 2022 Statistics Overview

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.