NA Sulfur Outlook

The North American sulfur desk entered the week of 15 September with the same structural tightness that has defined the market since February, but with fresher open prints on Hormuz transits, Chinese benchmarks, and phosphate run rates.

Open trade press through mid-August left the North American sulfur desk on the same Tampa third-quarter molten print that closed July: $705 per long ton delivered, still the last public contract figure.

Public trade press through mid-July left Tampa molten third-quarter 2026 at a record $705 per long ton delivered and described US Gulf granular export interest well above domestic molten contract levels.

Argus reported third-quarter 2026 Tampa molten sulfur contracts settled at a record $705 per long ton delivered, up $50 per long ton from $655 per long ton in the prior quarter, after the second quarter had already exceeded the previous 2008 peak.

North American formed sulfur entered the first week of July still on the Hormuz-era path that began when Kpler dated the Strait closed to commercial dry bulk on 28 February.

A June 2026 open market report summarized first-half sulfur benchmarks moving sharply higher: FOB Middle East from about $525 per tonne in February toward about $900 per tonne in June; CFR China from about $547 per tonne toward about $1,075 per tonne; Chinese ex-works from about 4,155 yuan per tonne toward about 9,500 yuan per tonne.

Second-quarter 2026 saw freight become a first-order price component. An open H1 2026 market table (call2supply) showed FOB Middle East rising from about $525/t in February toward about $900/t in June, CFR China from about $547/t toward about $1,075/t, and Middle East-China freight from roughly $26-27/t to $161-170/t. SMM described CIF Indonesia quotations

By mid-May 2026, open trade press described an extreme sulfur price episode tied to Middle East logistics stress and Strait of Hormuz risk.

Alberta Energy Regulator data reported by Argus showed provincial sulfur inventories at 11.66 million tonnes in July 2025, down more than 377,000 tonnes year on year and the lowest since May 2019.

On 28 February 2026, open trade analytics (Kpler) dated the Strait of Hormuz closure to commercial dry bulk traffic, immediately disrupting Middle East sulfur loadings that had supplied roughly 45-50% of seaborne trade.

Port of Vancouver reported sulphur up 5% to 3.5 Mt in 2025 as part of a record overall cargo year (170.4 MMT).

Third-quarter 2025 commentary emphasized destination diversification out of Vancouver: Brazil receipts nearly tripled year on year in the January-July window per Argus, while Australia held steady and Indonesia slipped.

By mid-2025 the Alberta inventory story had turned from buffer build to draw. Argus, citing AER data, reported closing sulfur inventory at 11.66 Mt in July 2025, down more than 377 kt or about 3% year on year, and the lowest since May 2019. Export-process costs typically exceeding $150/t meant draws required supportive Vancouver FOB; the $238/t Jan-Jul

Early 2025 opened a new firm phase. Argus later reported that January-July 2025 Argus Vancouver sulfur averaged $238/t FOB, more than triple the $78/t FOB average over the same period a year earlier. Solid sulfur exports via Vancouver reached 2.04 Mt in January-July 2025, up nearly 5% year on year, with stronger Brazil and Cuba receipts and steady Australia

Fourth-quarter 2024 Tampa molten at $116/lt (USGS MCS 2025) marked a clear lift from the $69/lt start of year without returning to 2022 spike territory.

Autumn 2024 still looked like a soft-to-moderate sulfur market relative to 2022 and 2025-26 extremes.

Mid-2024 kept sulfur in a moderate price band by recent cycle standards while Canadian export logistics stayed busy.

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 recorded Tampa contract sulfur beginning 2024 at $69 per long ton, rising to $81/lt in early March, then easing to $76/lt by early July, with Q4 2024 later at $116/lt.

Year-end 2023 left sulfur prices subdued relative to 2022 extremes. Open market notes into early 2024 described US Gulf Q1 2024 liquid contracts settling down to $69/lt FOB Tampa from late-2023 levels. Vancouver's ~3.1 Mt sulphur year confirmed structural volume growth even as prices stayed soft. Canadian surplus continued to clear through dual channels:

Keyera and Enbridge's South Cheecham sulphur facilities commenced operations at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, adding Fort McMurray-area forming and rail loadout under long-term take-or-pay arrangements.

Through mid-2023, Port of Vancouver sulphur was on track for a step-up year. Full-year 2023 port statistics and authority commentary later confirmed about 3.10 Mt of sulphur with an 11% year-on-year increase, contributing to record bulk exports. Volume growth amid still-moderate prices showed that Canadian solid sulfur had become a structural Pacific staple

Early 2023 opened in a soft sulfur price environment after the 2022 collapse, while Argus expected elevated North American output from resilient fuel demand and Canadian bitumen processing to stabilize prices.

Fourth-quarter 2022 locked in the post-spike reset. USGS recorded Tampa molten at $90/lt for Q4 2022 after the April peak of $481/lt. BC Insight noted the Q4 Tampa drop of $262/lt to $90/lt as the lowest since Q4 2020, citing higher US production and weaker processed-phosphate demand. USGS January-August 2022 US production was reported higher year on year

From July into August 2022 the sulfur market reversed violently. Keg River, citing Fertecon weekly Vancouver spots, reported roughly an 80% decline over about five weeks. Argus described Vancouver falling from the high-$400s toward under $65/t FOB within about two months as phosphate interest faded. BC Insight / CRU reported Middle East FOB averages

Second-quarter 2022 marked the cycle high for many sulfur benchmarks. Argus later recounted Vancouver spot midpoint near $478/t FOB, its highest since 2008, as phosphate demand rallied. An Argus Sulphur sample dated 26 May 2022 showed FOB Vancouver around $476-480/t and Vancouver-China freight for 50-60 kt stems near $41-46/t. Middle East FOB and CFR Asia

Early 2022 layered geopolitical risk onto an already firm sulfur market. USGS recorded Tampa contracts beginning 2022 near $282/lt, then rising to $481/lt in early April for the second-quarter settlement path. Open fertilizer trade notes (Keg River citing Fertecon) reported Vancouver spot FOB climbing from roughly $330-340/t in early March to $385-400/t by

Fourth-quarter 2021 kept Tampa molten contracts near $183/lt per USGS, ending a year that began near $69/lt.

Third-quarter 2021 solidified a tighter global sulfur balance as refinery utilization improved unevenly and phosphate buyers competed for solid cargoes.

By mid-2021, US Gulf molten markets had moved well above early-year levels as phosphate and industrial demand recovered and sulfur availability remained snug after pandemic-era refining cuts.

Elemental sulfur entered 2021 still marked by the 2020 pandemic shock to refining and fuel demand.