Sulfur Wire North American sulfur intelligence

Topics

US Gulf vs Vancouver basis history

US Gulf and Vancouver sulfur are linked by global phosphate and acid demand, but they are not the same product. Vancouver is primarily formed solid FOB for ocean export. The US Gulf combines domestic molten (with Tampa quarterly contracts into Florida) and a smaller solid export capability that varies by refinery infrastructure. Basis between the hubs is therefore a blend of form, freight, and regional surplus or deficit. In 2021 both hubs firmed from soft starts. Tampa climbed from about $69/lt toward $183/lt by year-end per USGS. Vancouver 3Q 2021 contract indications near $184-194/t in an Argus sample sat close to Middle East FOB, with Pacific and Gulf solids competing into overlapping Asian tenders after freight. Vancouver’s annual volume was still soft at 2.29 Mt. In the 2022 spike, Tampa’s $481/lt April settlement and Vancouver’s ~$478/t FOB peak moved together. Freight was high on both oceans; Argus’s May 2022 sample showed Vancouver-China at $41-46/t for large stems and elevated Middle East-Asia freights. Collapse was also synchronized: Tampa Q4 2022 at $90/lt and Vancouver under $65/t FOB in Argus’s recounting. US production recovery added Gulf-side length into the soft second half. 2023-24 reopened a quieter basis. Tampa spent much of early 2024 at or near $69/lt before firming to $116/lt by Q4. Vancouver volumes grew to 3.3 Mt even while prices stayed moderate, suggesting Canadian solid was clearing on logistics and term relationships more than on a wide premium to the Gulf. Cross-border molten rail from Canada into the US remained a separate inland basis from FOB Vancouver export solids. 2025 stretched the Pacific side. Vancouver’s $238/t January-July average was a seaborne solid story tied to Asian and Brazilian buying, while US domestic molten followed its own phosphate calendar. Exact weekly Gulf-Vancouver spreads require licensed assessments; the public fact is that Canadian inventory draws and Vancouver loadings accelerated while Tampa was firming off 2024 lows but not yet at 2026 records. 2026 broke historical relationships. With Middle East exports disrupted, US Gulf spot solid exports reached unusual destinations including north Africa and east Africa, per Argus, and Tampa Q3 settled at a record $705/lt. Vancouver FOB in open SMM commentary moved from about $492/mt early year toward $680-720/mt, while Platts-linked secondary reports later cited FOB Vancouver near $1,100/mt in early June alongside Middle East FOB near $995-1,000/mt. When the Gulf’s usual Middle East competitor disappears, both North American hubs can print extreme numbers without a stable historical basis band. Practical netback work should keep three books: Tampa delivered molten for Florida phosphate, FOB US Gulf solid where infrastructure exists, and FOB Vancouver solid into Pacific and diversion destinations. Freight and form differentials dominate any single “North America sulfur price.” UNCERTAIN: continuous public Gulf-Vancouver spread series; use attributed snapshots only. In soft years (much of 2023-early 2024), absolute levels were low at both hubs and Vancouver competed on volume growth and Pacific logistics on volume and Pacific logistics. In spike years (2022, 2026), both hubs reprinted scarcity, but the drivers differed: 2022 was phosphate-and-supply tightness with functioning oceans; 2026 was chokepoint failure plus dual-supplier policy shock. In rally years without corridor failure (2025), Vancouver FOB strength and Alberta draws led the Canadian story while Tampa firming trailed the prior soft prints without yet making records. Many US Gulf refiners serve domestic molten disposition; solid export capability is uneven. Western Canada midstream spent a decade building solid export pathways to Vancouver. When Middle East tonnes vanished, that asymmetry showed up as Canadian solids and selective Gulf solid diversion through Canadian solids and selective Gulf diversion. Sulfur Wire should keep hub pages separate and compute netbacks with explicit freight and form assumptions rather than a single blended “NA price.”

Sources